Showing posts with label Learn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Learn. Show all posts

Apr 13, 2010

RAGHAV BAHL (TV-18)–GREATEST REGRET IS DILUTING EQUITY

Interesting article and interview RAGHAV BAHL (TV-18):

Year 2006: How did you come about the idea of a TV channel, how did it happen?
Like all of life.s most important decisions, most of them are accidental. I always had television as a hobby in school and college, I always loved watching Doordarshan. I did my MBA and my first job was AF Ferguson in the consulting side. After which I joined American Express, but I kept my little television thing going as a hobby. There was no money and one could not make a career out of this hobby, Doordarshan used to give Rs250 for anchoring a show . e.g. Youth Forum.

Those days a new video magazine was launched by the India Today group. And that was the first time one could make a living out of television. They were paying you as much as they were paying journalists. A couple of years after that the whole satellite television revolution happened. CNN came in 1991 and the war was covered and satellite TV as a concept arrived, it was very clear to us then, that for a country like India, there has to be local content. That is the time when I decided to start something of my own.

So many things happened together which concluded in my starting this business. Starting with me quitting my professional job, then the launch of satellite television, then the realisation of the importance of the local content etc led to this business.

How much money did you invest to start your own business? Did you start on your own, or you had people along with you?
When I moved out of the job, I was clear that I am not going to take up another service job. So I started off as a professional or self employed. It was always a loose arrangement and from News Track we moved to Business India TV with Ashok Advani of Business India group. And the entrepreneurial journey began. One person who started off with me was Sanjay Ray Choudhury.
We made pilot programmes, I invested all the money that I had on my own - about two or three hundred thousand rupees in making two pilot shows. Both got selected - one went on BBC and the other was on Star Plus. Both were the first programmes out of India for satellite television.

Acceptance of the two shows led us to our first Venture capital investment. I remember we got a valuation of Rs70 or 80m rupees at that time and we raised some money. Next placement was at valuation of Rs 200-250m. Then another placement was made at valuation of Rs 600 to 700m.

From 1993 to 2005 what were the biggest challenges that you faced?
The biggest challenge is always the first few years. If you can survive the first few years then it keeps on getting easier. The biggest challenge again is the resources, if you don.t have much capital you can.t attract talent. You can attract only those who can believe in you personally and that can.t be more than 5 to 10 people.
It is much difficult running a Rs10m revenue company, than running a Rs 10bn company. Because nobody is wiling to back you, you don.t get a bank loan, you don.t get the best talent, yet you are competing with the big boys.

The first five or seven years you face big challenges in a new company. And I think people like us who don.t have family background of business do not understand concepts of valuations, equity financing. Yes I am an MBA, but you don.t learn much in the classrooms. Though it teaches you about balance
sheets and cashflow, it does not teach you about equity dilutions etc.

So how did producing TV content move into becoming a TV channel?

Till 95/96 we were a content production company. And we took the decision to become a broadcaster, not because there was a problem in content production but more as an opportunity. The decision of moving into broadcasting was the most significant decision taken. In 95/96 after being four years in content production we emerged in business news space as people who were doing good work. Our BBC show did manage to create lot of
goodwill and created a lot of impact.

However, increasingly it became clear to me that if you want to be in a news space you cannot only be a content producer. So I told our shareholders that we have to give up our BBC deal, I had to do a joint venture with CNBC but since it is a broadcast JV we will be running all the risk as there will be no annuity revenues coming in.

At that time, some share holders pulled out, some directors were very unhappy. Everybody said . .look at the competitors - they are all content people and no one is talking about becoming a broadcaster. Those guys have got much stronger balance sheet than you.. But I said that it.s not a matter of balance sheet, either we get out of the content business because I tell you it will die.
It was also very clear to us that in content margin are going to be very low. If you are not creating IPRs you will be a 10% player. You will earn only 10% margins. You want to be all your life in a business where clearly your budgets will come down, your revenues will keep coming down, because there are no
entry barriers.

That was our biggest decision, we broke up with BBC and we formed a JV with CNBC, and made our tentative steps into broadcasting and it took three to four years before that model evolved.

When did you decide to launch the general news channel IBN?
I think it was somewhere in 2003/2004. English news was a beautiful opportunity sitting for us. We already understood the product in CNBC; we understood the advertising and the consumers of English news channel. There was only one other English news channel - NDTV 24/7 - a entire Rs1bn market dominated entirely by it. So it was a monopoly market waiting for a good second player to enter. It made a lot of sense for us. Opportunity crystallised with the coming of Rajdeep.
CNN-IBN has taken off very nicely. We have ratings for one week and we have already captured 50% of the market. So, the first feed back is that it has already entered the consideration mindset of the people.

Instead of coming out with another channel why not a newspaper?
We believe that opportunity is in the Satellite TV space. After being successful with CNBC, our natural extension was to get into Hindi space. We wanted to cover the entire spectrum - we covered Hindi with Awaaz. I have absolutely no doubt that in three to four years that Awaaz will become one of the most valuable properties. It a completely pioneering effort it is an unchartered market. We have created the market for business news in Hindi.

What are you near term focus areas?
www.moneycontrol.com is something that we are very consciously scaling up. This is the interface between media and internet that we believe is going to be become really powerful. We just announced delivery of CNBC on video on mobile. As information players on television, internet is the next big opportunity.
We don.t want to get into general entertainment, because that is not in our genes. And we don.t want to be a 10% margin player where the broadcaster dictates terms.

Are you a dreamer or a detailed planner?
Every entrepreneur calculates a lot. One of the best definitions of an entrepreneur is that he is a risk minimiser, not a risk taker. He will take risk because it is in his DNA, but he is a minimizer. He will do every thing possible to minimize it because he wants to survive in the market. On the spectrum of risk taking, there will be some people who take more risk and some who take less risk.

How far ahead do you plan and forecast. One year? Three years? 10 years?
In all honesty the next 12 months is all we can plan for and forecast. The rest are all aspirations and dreams of where we want to be. Also, all the decision are evolving - so it.s difficult to plan for the long term. When we cross some basic milestones, only then can we plan for the future. But for the next 12 months, we have a fairly strong degree of conviction on our plans and projections. We have detailed projections of cashflows, investments, returns and profits. For the next three years we have a reasonably broad sense
of where we are. But beyond that, it.s difficult to plan
.
In this media business lot of people put pressure on you . of various kinds to do various kinds of things. How do you handle this?
In this media business, it is how you conduct yourself. In this last ten years, I did not have any pressure; I am not saying this with any sense of false bravado. I am not trying to be sensational. No industrialist has ever picked up the phone to tell me that what you are doing is not right and that I should drop it. Its one of those things I keep reading about advertising pressure. .Nobody has done it. Maybe I do not meet them at parties, maybe I am too
reclusive, maybe they understand that there.s no point.

It is said that Indian entrepreneurs don.t think big and get satisfied quite easily. What are your views?
Culturally you might have a point. The same question I asked myself, why do we get satisfied too quickly? I haven.t yet come to a full answer, maybe we do. Maybe we are self limiting in our ambition. Also may be, we are coming from years of control. Unfortunately, our business is still so much in control. There are regulatory approvals required for everything On the other hand, we do see that our children are much more aggressive because they have been a part of free enterprise India & they will have bigger and unlimited dreams.

What motivates you?
Money is certainly needed, but only up to a threshold level; money is the raw material for further growth. I am very reclusive person socially - I don.t have much needs. But, I do like to live well and I am not a saint in that sense. However, it.s never been that if I come to office I don.t have a new project in my mind. If I don.t have any new project in my mind, then it.s very boring to come to office.

What is your role in the organisation?
I wear two hats - as an editor I am very online and operational. I like to do it because I believe I do it well - that is my operative role. The other is entrepreneur in the company, which is entirely strategy, finance, and communication to the world.. So firstly, I have an editorial operating job, which could have been done by
someone else but I do it because I like to do it and I believe I am good at it. Nothing goes through me, but as a friend/philosopher/guide/mentor I just keep a watch on it.
I believe I bring little value to other commercial operations in the company. I am zero at brand building & marketing and leading commercial operations. Our CEO is better than I am.

Who are your role models, if any?
The one role model that motivates me is the line I came across while reading the life of JRD Tata. He was asked how do you manage so many businesses, he said I have just one philosophy . .I just surround myself with the best people and set them free. - that line has stayed with me. He said that.s how so many business have come up otherwise I could not have done it alone.That line is a role model line for me. There are plenty of role models, like Narayana Murthy is a role model for a lot of people . just the amount of wealth he has created. And Dhirubhai Ambani.
I don.t think the world has seen an entrepreneur better than him, and I think,nobody has said a bad thing about him - from a vendor, to a supplier, to the shareholders.

Do you read books?
Very few. I used to read a lot when I was in college. I have started reading them again. But now I like to read nice, light, pulp fiction. I like watching Amitabh Bacchan and variety of Hindi films . nothing heavy right now.

If you had to change one decision that you have taken in the past ten years, what would that be?
I would have seriously structured the capital of this company much better. I am struggling with the fact that I have 26 to 30% of this company. At this stage, increasing the share holding is much more difficult.
Source: CLSA
10/Dec/2006 at 8:33pm
First past the post

In the mad race of news channels, TV 18 is charging ahead. And the man to watch is Raghav Bahl, says Shuma Raha
In 1999, a fire destroyed the offices of TV 18 in Kalkaji, New Delhi. Raghav Bahl, managing director, promoter and prime mover of the company, immediately ordered the entire operation to be shifted to his own home. “There was no other place,” says Bahl. “We didn’t want to miss broadcasting even for a day. Everybody worked overtime to set up the studio and CNBC TV 18 went on air with its programme as usual.”
That can-do, come-let’s-beat-the-odds spirit characterises Raghav Bahl as nothing else does. The 44-year-old businessman and sometime television anchor has powered TV 18 from its somewhat rocky beginnings to such a position of strength that today it is considered one of the foremost players in India’s burgeoning media space.
Sitting in TV 18’s swank offices in Noida on the capital’s outskirts, Bahl — dapper and urbane — looks pleased with the way things are shaping up for his company. And with good reason. With four 24-hour news channels under its belt — CNBC TV 18 (English business news), CNN IBN (English general news), CNBC Awaaz (Hindi business news), and IBN7 (Hindi general news) — TV 18 now occupies the top spot in the television news category in terms of the number of channels. That’s not all. According to the latest TAM viewership ratings, CNN-IBN, launched just a year ago, has raced ahead of its other competitors and is now running neck-and-neck with NDTV 24X7, the stalwart in the English news space. CNBC TV 18 and CNBC Awaaz too are clear leaders in the English and Hindi business news categories, respectively.
Bahl is a bit of an enigma in the media. He maintains a low profile, and few outside the industry connect TV 18 with this man with a heavily receding hairline. There are those who call him ruthless and autocratic, and some say that he is by no means an easy person to work with. But Bahl has little time for such criticism: there is, after all, an empire to be run.
Indeed, these are heady days for the entire TV 18 group. The company is on a brisk expansion mode, foraying into a plethora of media spaces like film production, e-recruitment, e-travel and e-commerce. Earlier this year, it picked up a majority stake in JobStreet.com, it has a strategic stake in the travel portal Yatra Online and has several other Web businesses, including its flagship portal moneycontrol.com. Apart from ramping up its presence on the Web, the group is set to launch a home shopping channel on television this month. It even acquired wire agency Crisil MarketWire last month to get a foot into the data terminal business.
So how does it feel to have transformed TV 18 from a single channel unit less than 18 months ago to what is now a fast-growing media conglomerate straddling news broadcast, Internet platforms and the entertainment business? “Good,” says Bahl, with a smile. “But you have also got to remember that these are extremely opportune times — I call it the gold prospecting times of the Indian economy. So you’ve got to be paranoid about your growth, you’ve got to move very fast, otherwise you’ll miss out on opportunities.”
That shouldn’t worry Bahl much, for he’s always had the knack of seizing Fortuna by the forelock, as it were. The economics honours graduate from St Stephen’s College, Delhi, who dabbled in Doordarshan’s brand of television from his college days, was quick to see the colossal and hitherto unimagined opportunities that satellite television offered. “When satellite TV came to India in 1991, it was very clear to me that this was a huge force that was here to stay and that we would need local content to feed it,” says Bahl.
That was when he decided to embrace the media business full time. In 1993, he set up TV18 — “18” is a lucky number for him, he reveals — along with a co-promoter named Sanjay Roy Choudhury, who is on the company’s board even today. Bahl’s only investment in the venture was the Rs 50,000 that he had drawn from his savings bank and which went into the making of the pilot projects for India Business Report and The Amul India Show which TV 18 did for BBC World and Star, respectively.
India Business Report on BBC, the weekly show that Bahl anchored himself, went on to become a success. But he soon realised that it was simply not enough to be a provider of content — the way forward lay in broadcasting. The leap of faith, from content producer to broadcaster, came when the Singapore-based Asia Business News (ABN), a Dow Jones company, offered TV 18 a broadcasting partnership in 1995. “Not many people realise that we were the first television producer to become a broadcaster,” says Bahl.
The journey so far hasn’t been all smooth sailing, though. There have been hurdles on the way and crises that have loomed up and threatened to knock the bottom out of what was then a fledgling media enterprise. One such critical moment came in 1998 when ABN merged with CNBC. “The joint venture between TV 18 and ABN came to an end and CNBC TV 18 was born, where we became a brand and corporate franchisee of CNBC,” says Bahl. Had that deal not materialised, TV 18 would have been in dire straits and left with huge losses as it simply did not have the wherewithal at the time to become an independent broadcaster.
Today, sitting atop a Rs 300-crore media empire, Bahl is fairly gung-ho about the prospects of India’s electronic media. The coming of the Conditional Access System (CAS), direct-to-home (DTH) television and Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) will, he feels, energise and transform the medium like never before. “As I see it, there have been three waves in Indian television,” says Bahl. “The first was when satellite TV came in. The second took place when cable TV reached 40 to 50 million households and we moved from omnibus channels to niche and special interest channels like music, sports, etc. Now we are witnessing the third wave where, because the government is allowing competitive forces to enter the market by way of CAS, DTH, IPTV, etc, our industrial structures will finally begin to approximate global structures.”
A spin off of that could be greater revenues flowing in from the distribution end of the business. At present 90 per cent of the revenues of Indian TV channels come from advertising although globally, the share is about 50 per cent from ads and 50 per cent from distribution. “I am not being so bullish as to claim that we’ll double our revenues as a result. But it will happen by and by,” he says.
As far as his own channels are concerned, Bahl is confident that IBN7, which is the only laggard in the TV 18 pack, will fight hard to take on the challenge in the fiercely competitive Hindi news space. And the next move would be to venture into regional channels. “That’s the logical step forward,” he says, although he refuses to divulge any details on that front.
Bahl’s associates call him a “visionary” — a man who can read the future and reap its promises. Those who have fallen out with him claim that he can be ruthless when he wants to be. But, clearly, everybody admires his ability to lead from the front. Says Paranjoy Guha Thakurta, director, School of Convergence, Delhi, and a former anchor on CNBC TV 18, “He has a tremendous ability to enthuse people.” Adds Malvika Singh, publisher of the monthly magazine Seminar and Bahl’s colleague in India Business Report in the early 1990s, “He is extremely hardworking and has a professionalism that is rare in the television industry. He may have strong opinions but he is not opinionated.”
His professionalism and the way he has instilled it into the ethos of his channels is something that Ashish Kapoor, a Delhi-based stock market analyst, also admires. “His marketing skills and his ability to grow aggressively are to be emulated,” says Kapoor.
Today, Bahl is content to step back and let the few good men and women who run his channels and businesses take the group forward. He believes in the mantra that unless you vacate spaces and empower people, they will not deliver and the organisation will suffer as a result. “I used to be completely hands-on in the 1990s. But now I am there more as a friend, philosopher and guide. I am involved with all the strategic decisions of the company, but operationally, our CEOs and editors have an absolutely free hand.”
That is perhaps why he gets to spend more time with his family — his wife, his 11-year-old daughter and five-year-old son. But though he may not be physically in office for long hours, he admits that thanks to technology, he ends up being “engaged” with his work close to 15 hours a day.
“I consider myself an intellectual entrepreneur,” says Bahl. “What attracted me to the media business in the first place was that the product was intellectual and that it had tremendous entrepreneurial possibilities.” Bahl has certainly made good many of those possibilities. But as he’d be quick to tell you, the best is probably yet to be.
Growth story
TV 18’s New Ventures
Launched a new company, Studio 18, earlier this year to foray into the motion picture business.
In April 2006, picked up a majority stake in e-recruitment portal JobStreet.com.
In November 2006, announced the acquisition of wire agency Crisil MarketWire.
In November 2006, signed an exclusive distribution deal with Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) to bring its free-to-air infotainment channel Australia Network to cable homes in the country.
A home shopping TV channel to be launched later this month.
Plans to launch regional channels.

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=524

Market Cap to GDP ratio

13Apr2010: Warren Buffett calls this ratio as ‘probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment'. His disregard for macroeconomics is legendary. But even he is willing to relax his otherwise strict stance on the subject just for this one ratio. It is the ratio of a country's stockmarkets' total market capitalisation to its economic size or GDP. Call it the ‘market cap to GDP ratio'.


Over the years, this ratio has done a very good job of determining long-term returns that an investor can expect from the stock markets. As the chart below suggests, for India, the average market cap to GDP number over the past 2 decades has been 52%. Indian markets were trading near this ratio in March 2009 (when this rally started). And as we stand currently, the markets are back at almost their 2008 peak!


As per Buffett, a 70-80% range on this ratio indicates that markets are somewhere between moderate valuation and fair valuation. If the ratio exceeds 115% (we are almost there!), the markets are in the overvalued zone where odds of investing are not in the favor of investor.

http://www.equitymaster.com/images/2009/042109-Market-cap-to-GNP-ratio-equitymaster.gif

Jan 18, 2010

High dilution must be backed by high earnings growth

The following article from Economic Times provides some good insights for understanding finance...

18Jan2010


Often overlooked and underestimated aspect of investments is equity dilution. You would have come across advertisements saying a certain company posted a high profit growth or a certain company’s market value was worth a few hundred crore some years ago but now its market capitalization is worth a several thousand crore. But the fact is that these examples don’t tell you the entire story.

It doesn’t tell you the cost of growth. As you would appreciate, growth requires capital and investors need to know the source of the capital. If the growth has been funded through internal accruals then, existing shareholders will fully capture the growth, but if the company is growing by expanding its equity base (i.e. creating new shares) then existing shareholders will have to share the growth with the growing numbers of shareholders. This phenomenon is called equity dilution and it caps the gains for shareholders.

Let’s take a simple example. Consider a company ABC Ltd with Rs 100 as profit and only two shareholders. Each shareholder is entitled to Rs 50 each of profit. Assuming that the profit grew by 50% in a year, ABC Ltd makes Rs 150 as profit and two partners are entitled to Rs 75 each. Contrast this with another company called XYZ Ltd. It also finished the first year with Rs 100 as profit. It also had two shareholders and therefore they too were entitled to Rs 50 each. But this company decided to rope in more shareholders to pump in more capital. As a result, it had three shareholders. XYZ Ltd grew at a faster rate than ABC Ltd. Let’s assume that it grew by 70%. So next year it finished with Rs 170 as profit.

Every shareholder is entitled to Rs 57 as a share in profit. Note that despite XYZ Ltd growing at a faster rate than ABC Ltd, the shareholders of former were worse off than latter. However, there are several permutations and combinations. It might have happened that XYZ Ltd grew at such an astronomical rate that profit per shareholder was higher than ABC Ltd. Taking this as the central idea, ET Intelligence Group decided to look into several sectors and hunt for such cases. In real life the dilutions happen through rights issue, conversion of debt into equity, private placement of shares, QIBs, GDR issues, domestic public issue and issuance of stock options among others.

We don’t treat bonus issue in dilution because the existing shareholders get the shares and company’s networth (or total equity) remains unchanged in a bonus issue. The dilution rate is calculated as compounded annual growth rate of paid up equity capital since the start of FY 2000 or from the year the company was listed, whichever is later. Similarly, earnings growth was calculated. The difference between the earnings growth and dilution rate is referred as real growth (or growth in earnings per share).

Since all the companies under consideration were not listed in FY 2000, the share price growth and market capitalization growth was calculated from FY 03. We found cases wherein a company grew its profit at a higher rate than its rival. However, it had to fund its growth by constantly raising equity capital and it kept on diluting its equity. And therefore, EPS growth was much lesser than the actual growth in the company’s earnings. Let’s take the case of Amtek Auto and Bosch.

Both companies are in auto-ancillary space. At 22% per annum, Bosch’s profit growth was much lesser compared to 37% growth posted by Amtek Auto. But while Amtek Auto diluted its capital at the rate of 14% per year, Bosch didn’t have to expand its capital base. So Bosh’s real earnings growth stood at 24%, which is marginally higher than 23% posted by Amtek Auto. The story gets more interesting in the case of two banking giants – ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank.

Banking is a capital-intensive sector by its very nature. Banks have to maintain a certain minimum percentage of their assets as capital. So dilution is inevitable. But different banks have handled it in different ways. ICICI Bank preferred the strategy of aggressive capital raising leading to high earnings growth and on the other hand HDFC Bank managed to grow at high rates despite being far more conservative on dilution. At 49% per annum earnings growth, ICICI Bank seemed to be the fastest growing bank of the decade. However, it came on the back 21% dilution per annum. So, the real earnings growth was reduced to 28% per annum. With 39% growth in earnings HDFC Bank grew at lesser pace than its rival ICICI Bank. However, with 6% dilution rate, it managed to post EPS growth of 33%, which is much higher than ICICI Bank.

Let’s look at the cement sector. For instance, Ambuja Cements diluted its capital at the rate of 8% per annum, while ACC’s dilution was minimal. Despite this, Ambuja Cements could manage to maintain earnings growth of only 28%, while ACC’s earnings grew at 47%. Similarly, India Cements’ real earnings growth came down due to constant dilution over the years. Similarly, in hospitality industry Indian Hotels diluted its capital at 5% per annum, while EIH didn’t dilute its capital at all. Despite this, EIH grew at 10% per annum higher than 8% earnings growth registered by Indian Hotels. Perhaps the most classic cases of conservatism on dilution are in the FMCG industry. Both ITC and Nestle have not diluted their capital base. Yet they managed to post earnings growth in double digits.

These companies may not be among the highfliers on Dalal Street, but when it comes to stability, it’s tough to find a match to steady companies like ITC and Nestle. On the other hand, in the same industry and growing at almost identical rates, Dabur diluted the capital at 8% per annum, which pulled down its EPS growth. But before you conclude that the performance of companies with high dilution is always below others , which do not, we have examples of companies with high dilution and a very high growth in real earnings. These are typically those cases, wherein the company had to raise capital to scale and reach a higher level. For instance, Shriram Transport Finance. At 26% per annum, it has one of the highest dilution rates. However, the company’s earnings growth stood at 76% per annum implying a real earnings growth of 50%.

Similarly, in construction industry IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects diluted its capital at 18% per annum, one of the highest rates in construction industry. At the same time, it managed to grow its profit at 44% resulting in a high real earnings growth. So what are the key points for investors? In many cases, we have observed that the companies with less dilution give better return to shareholders over a long period of time. For instance, Bosch’s stock has given a return of 42% per annum, while Amtek Auto has given a return of only 12%. With one of highest dilutions in banking space, ICICI has given one of the lowest returns at just 16% per annum.

It is noteworthy that the state-owned banks like State Bank of India and Punjab National Bank have given more return than ICICI Bank. One of the aspects investors should be cautious of is that in companies with high dilution, the growth in market capitalisation is far higher than that of its stock price. This is because more stock gets added to paid up capital. So, next time your advisor boast of high market cap, please run a check. For instance, Amtek Auto’s market cap has grown at a rate of 16% per annum, while stock price has grown at the rate of 12%.

In the end, we don’t want to say that investors should ignore companies with high dilution in capital. The mantra is to make sure that high dilution is backed by high earnings growth.


Source:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/features/investors-guide/High-dilution-must-be-backed-by-high-earnings-growth/articleshow/5456409.cms